BayesianBahn

about

description

Early release: predictions are experimental — always cross-check times and connections with DB's official apps. BayesianBahn predicts when you will actually arrive — as a full probability distribution, not a single number. Enter where you start, where you want to go and when (also future trips): the app searches direct trains and journeys with one change — routes needing two or more changes are not covered yet, so it will sometimes find fewer connections than DB's own apps. For each option it shows: * the median predicted arrival time at your destination, * an 80% credible interval, * the full delay distribution as a chart, * the probability of catching each connecting train, * a Deutschland-Ticket filter that keeps you on regional trains. Transfers are propagated with Bayes' theorem: you board the first connecting train that has not left yet — so a delayed earlier train counts as catchable, and a missed connection honestly shifts the whole distribution. Live station boards and per-train predictions (including cancellation rates) are also available. Predictions are empirical: they come from months of real historical runs of that exact train at that station (collected from Deutsche Bahn's public IRIS API, CC BY 4.0), reweighted for recency and weekday. When DB reports an actual delay the forecast is anchored on it; when it reports nothing — which it does for most trains until shortly before departure — the history is left to speak for itself, which measurably beats treating the timetable as a forecast. Delay history updates in-app — a small daily data release keeps predictions fresh to within a day. Trains without history get an honest Bayesian prior estimate. The app talks only to the keyless public IRIS timetable endpoint and the project's own data releases, needs no account, no API key, no Google services, and collects no data.

publisher

78ce6faa72264387284e647ba6938995735ec8c7d5c5a65737e55130f026307d

first seen

2026-10-08T06:56:20.773863+00:00

last event

2026-10-08 06:56 UTC

install

zapstore.dev or any Zapstore-compatible client

source & build

repository

https://github.com/derweh/bayesianbahn

arch flags

android-arm64-v8a android-armeabi-v7a android-x86 android-x86_64

manifest

missing

releases (kind 30063)

1 release indexed; latest 0.4.0.

assets & verification

Every app, release and asset event is schnorr-verified (NIP-01 id + signature) before it enters the catalog, and assets are content-addressed by sha256. We subscribe read-only to the catalog relay — never write to it.

0.4.0 — io.github.derweh.bayesianbahn_8.apk

sha256

60fd9dfc577670401e40b260647779a31e96fd975b075ec5a02ed957f5490134

size

5.0 MB

archs

android-arm64-v8a, android-armeabi-v7a, android-x86, android-x86_64

version code

8

apk cert sha256

20856bfc1b57dcf49655572f132387b860bf93571a8111605c7d53bf84120fca

download

io.github.derweh.bayesianbahn_8.apk

Showing the newest 1 asset descriptor; the full set is in /api/apps/78ce6faa…